India’s chances of reaching the ICC World Test Championship (WTC final 2025) depend on Pakistan’s upcoming two-match Test series against South Africa. Pakistan can boost India’s hopes by defeating South Africa in their series if the Rohit Sharma-led team fails to defeat Australia in the upcoming two Tests.
Four teams—Australia, India, South Africa, and Sri Lanka—are competing for the two spots in the World Test Championship final, set to be played at Lord’s next year. Australia, India, and South Africa are strong contenders, but Sri Lanka still has an outside chance to secure their first WTC final appearance.
South Africa Currently Leads the WTC 2023-25 Standings
South Africa currently leads the WTC 2023-25 standings and has the opportunity to solidify their position with two home Tests against Pakistan. Meanwhile, India faces a tough challenge as their qualification hopes depend on winning the final two Tests against Australia in Melbourne and Sydney.
India required a 4-1 win in the BGT 2024-25 series to advance to the WTC 2025 final. The five-match Test series is currently tied at 1-1. Team India’s qualification chances were severely affected by a loss in the second Test against Australia in Adelaide and a draw in the third Test at the Gabba in Brisbane.
India Has Been Unbeaten in Tests at Melbourne and Sydney Since January 2012
India has been unbeaten in Tests at Melbourne and Sydney since January 2012. Securing wins in both remaining matches will guarantee India a spot in the upcoming WTC final. However, a draw in either game would force them to rely on Pakistan defeating South Africa to keep their qualification hopes alive.
India can take their points percentage (PCT) to 60.53% if they win their next two Test matches. It will be impossible for Australia to surpass them, even if they whitewash Sri Lanka in their upcoming series. However, if India wins only one match and loses the other, their PCT would drop to 55.26%.
South Africa currently leads the WTC standings with a PCT of 63.33%. However, a 0-2 series defeat to Pakistan would reduce their PCT to a maximum of 52.78%. If Pakistan secures this result, India could qualify for the WTC final even with just one win in their last two Tests, as South Africa falls below India.
India’s Next Test Match Set to Commence on December 26
To qualify, India needs one more win, a 2-0 whitewash by Pakistan over South Africa, and a 2-0 win for Australia over Sri Lanka. In this scenario, India would finish with a PCT of at least 55.26%, South Africa would drop to 52.78%, and Australia would remain above with a PCT of at least 57.01%.
The Rohit Sharma-led team’s next match against Australia will commence on Thursday, December 26, in Melbourne. Meanwhile, Pakistan will face South Africa in Centurion, and their performance will be crucial for India’s chances.
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