Bitcoin nears $100,000 — but strategists are split

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

European markets closed higher
U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. The pan-European Stoxx 600 added 0.46%, pulling back slightly from gains earlier in the day. Shares of British insurance firm Direct Line surged 41.4%, their highest level since early 2023, after it said a takeover offer from rival Aviva “substantially undervalued” the company.

Looser chip export ban by U.S.
Shares of global semiconductor suppliers, such as ASML and Tokyo Electron, jumped on Thursday on reports that the U.S. might implement export restrictions that are less strict than expected. The report stated that the U.S. is considering adding fewer of Huawei’s suppliers to an export blacklist.

Tighter tungsten export control by China
China will start limiting exports of tungsten this weekend, as part of measures that control the flow of goods that can be used for both military and civilian purposes. It’s a stark reversal of the past decades, when China controlled 80% of the tungsten supply chain, according to Argus. To make up for the drop in supply, companies are looking to open or resume production in tungsten mines.

Russia ruble rout
The Russian ruble weakened to 114 against the dollar on Wednesday. That’s its lowest level since March 2022, shortly after the country invaded Ukraine. Russia’s central bank intervened on the same day, saying it would halt foreign purchases on the domestic currency market for the rest of the year “in order to reduce the volatility of financial markets.”

[PRO] ‘Europe is a stock picker’s market’
While Morgan Stanley downgraded European equities to neutral earlier this year, the Wall Street bank has recently reevaluated its stance. “Europe is a stock picker’s market” now, Morgan Stanley said, and there is “material scope for alpha generation” for the right stocks.

Bitcoin danced seductively close to the $100,000 level this week — at its highest, it was less than $1,000 away — but that psychological peak was out of reach for the cryptocurrency. It retreated to as low as $90,702.27 on Tuesday, before stirring itself up to trade at around $95,600 today.

One reason it fell was that investors cashed in on bitcoin’s unprecedentedly high price, increasing the supply of bitcoin. “Long-term holders have started to distribute significant amounts of bitcoins into the recent rally,” Andre Dragosch, head of research for Europe at crypto-focused asset management firm Bitwise, wrote in a research note shared Monday.

But there are more fundamental reasons some strategists aren’t sure bitcoin can muster enough strength to touch the six-digit milestone.

The $100,000 mark “feels as if it has become a high hurdle, if not a barrier, for further gains,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at brokerage firm Trade Nation.

In fact, bitcoin’s recent surge might be giving investors a false sense of security, according to George Milling-Stanley, State Street Global Advisors’ chief gold strategist. “Bitcoin, pure and simple, it’s a return play,” said Milling-Stanley, which suggests that investors are piling into bitcoin to reap capital gains and not because they see value or use in the cryptocurrency.

The launch of options on spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week might have something to do with that. Options allow investors to deploy less cash to bet on bitcoin’s price movements, rather than buying a portion of bitcoin itself.

Indeed, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, a longtime crypto investor, told CNBC that “the crypto community is levered to the gills, and so there will be a correction.”

That said, a correction isn’t a permanent deflation. And if just a fraction of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to the crypto industry are realized, the $100,000 price level may not be a ceiling, but just another rung that bitcoin passes on its celebratory climb upward.

— CNBC’s Tanaya Macheel, Ryan Browne, MacKenzie Sigalos and Krysta Escobar contributed to this report.